As mineral reserves dwindle, the world races to secure the materials we need to decarbonize

Throughout human history, one truth has remained constant: our world runs on natural resources. From gold rushes to oil booms, access to and control of these resources has always been a central part of civilizations’ struggle to survive and thrive. 

Today, “critical energy transition minerals” – including copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earth – have taken centre stage in the global debate over our collective future. Essential components of many renewable energy technologies, these minerals are vital to the clean energy revolution on which our climate depends. 

Without lithium, nickel and cobalt, we cannot make batteries for electric cars and grid energy storage. Rare earth elements are used to make wind turbine generators. Wires made of super-conductive copper make up the crackling nervous system of everything we electrify; electric vehicles require up to four times as much of it as traditional combustion engines. 

“Critical energy transition minerals are one of the building blocks of the low carbon economy,” explains Elisa Tonda, Chief of Resources and Markets at the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

Demand for these minerals – driven also by data centres and consumer electronics – is on track to double by 2040; if the world were to achieve net-zero by 2050, demand would increase six-fold.

Bridging this gap requires more responsible mining, stronger environmental and social safeguards, fair benefit sharing, more efficient use of materials, and increased circularity in our economies, says Tonda. “We have to keep resources in the economy for as long as possible, circulating at their highest possible value,” she explains. 

“It is essential to meet this growing demand with solutions that protect the environment, respect people and support local communities.” 

Excavating the urban mine 

Surging demand, constrained supply and environmental costs are challenges we face with all critical energy transition minerals -- but these issues are particularly visible in the case of copper. 

The UN projects demand for copper will surge more than 40 per cent by 2040. But raw copper supply is not keeping up. A study by S&P Global found that mined production is expected to peak around 2030, then flatten or decline.

On the other hand, “copper is completely, infinitely recyclable,” remarks Inka Guixà, CEO of the Spain-based copper recycling company La Farga. “It can be refined and recycled again and again without losing properties. That’s why we have a duty to keep it in use.” 

La Farga has been in the business of collecting and recycling copper for over two centuries, working in what is known as the “urban mine.”

“One of the world's greatest copper resources is all around us,” says Guixà. “It’s in construction, in railways, in data centres, in vehicles. Every product collected is an opportunity to recover copper, support innovation and give this valuable material a new life.” 

An estimated two-thirds of copper produced over the past 100 years is still in use, shaped into wires or pipes which, if correctly recycled, could be reused in any product requiring electricity. La Farga processes around 200,000 tonnes of copper per year at their facilities in Spain and the United States, producing rods of recycled copper that go on to supply the railway, automotive and electrical sectors. 

“Circularity and high industrial performance are already possible at scale,” says Guixà. “We should be investing and innovating in order to be able to bring this copper back to life.” 

Responsible mining: an important part of the mineral equation 

Recycling, however, won’t be enough to meet growing demand. McKinsey and Company predict that total global copper supply – including all recyclable copper -- will reach only 30.1 million tonnes by 2031, while demand could soar to 36.6 million tonnes in the same period. This means that without more raw copper production, the world could face a shortfall of 6.5 million tonnes within the next five years. 

Mining is still part of the equation, but it’s crucial that it be done responsibly, says Tonda. In 2018 the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance (IRMA), a UNEP partner, set out to encourage this by offering an assessment and assurance program that evaluates industrial-scale mines according to “best practice” social and environmental standards. 

“Mining is an industry with the incredible upside of providing materials we all need every day, and yet it is uniquely destructive in the way it gets those materials. Those impacts can last for centuries,” says Aimee Boulanger, IRMA’s Executive Director. 

“Responsible mining should respect human rights and the aspirations of communities who live closest to mining,” she adds. “It should provide safe, healthy, supportive workplaces for the workers. It should minimize harm to the environment, and it should leave positive legacies.” 

At Anglo American’s Quellaveco copper mine in southern Peru – a mine certified by IRMA – Miguel Narváez spends a lot of time thinking about how to meet these standards. As Superintendent of Territorial Development, Narváez insists that today’s mines need to operate differently than they have in the past. 

“Traditional mining was focused solely on the production of minerals,” he says. “Today, with a project like ours, this is unthinkable. We cannot be indifferent to local development.” 

Quellaveco works with local authorities to develop financial inclusion projects and training centres for local farmers, and has built several water treatment plants to ensure communities have access to clean water. 

Narváez’s team is also careful to minimize water loss at the mine itself – a crucial consideration in the arid region of Moquegua, home to some of the world’s richest copper reserves. 

“We are operating in an area of water scarcity, and we have to be responsible,” says Juan Cahuana, Process Manager at the mine. “I'm always thinking about maximizing water recovery, returning it to the process and minimizing the consumption of fresh water.” 

But responsible mining is more than just an ethical imperative – it’s also a way to keep critical mineral supply chains open.

“If we've got conflict driven by mining because it does harm, we don't have a sustainable way to access these materials, because supply chains built on harm are going to be inherently fragile and unsustainable,” Boulanger explains. “But having companies undertake development projects in order to access minerals like copper reassures communities that the mining business is complementary to their region, their lifestyle, their economy. That makes our access to the minerals more sustainable, and our use of that land more sustainable for the long term.” 

How policy can bridge the gap 

Maintaining access to critical energy transition minerals like copper is in everyone’s interest – but achieving it is not always simple. It requires market incentives that encourage both circularity and the responsible use of our limited resources. 

This is the goal of the European Union's Circular Economy Act, likely to be adopted in late 2026. The act establishes a unified single market for secondary raw materials, with the aim of stimulating both demand and supply of high-quality recycled materials within the EU.

It also aims to double’s Europe’s circularity rate – the percentage of strategic raw materials that are recycled or reused – to 24 per cent by 2030. Although electronic waste is a key source of critical energy transition minerals, today less than half of Europe’s e-waste is collected for recycling. Even when it is collected, it’s not always easy to extract valuable minerals from old appliances; European legislation requires manufacturers to make the electronic components easily removable, reducing the contamination of steel alloys with copper. 

But UNEP’s Tonda emphasizes that true circularity involves more than just recycling.

“Circularity requires mining and processing companies to recover more minerals from their operations and support the use of recycled minerals, manufacturers to design products to last longer and be easier to repair,” she says. “It requires governments to ensure that regulations, incentives and standards are in place to promote reuse, remanufacturing and recycling. It requires consumers to use products for as long as possible, and to recycle them rather than dispose of them.” 

With the right policies in place, adds Tonda, “critical energy transition minerals like copper could create new jobs, open the door to new industries, produce public revenue and enable countries to get more value out of their resources.” 

Managed correctly, these minerals also hold the key to decarbonizing our future. As Boulanger says, “it’s so important to get it right.” 

The production of this story was co-funded by the European Union. The European Union funds part of UNEP’s work on circularity. 

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